The GCC’s population more than doubled over the past 25 years, growing from 26.2m in 1995 to 56.4m in 2021, outpacing the global growth rate of 30%. Urbanisation has also accelerated across the region, driven by rapid economic development, migration and the concentration of economic activities in urban centres. By 2015 the GCC led Arab countries as the most urbanised subregion, with an urbanisation rate of 82.2%. Specifically, Qatar and Kuwait achieved urbanisation rates of 99.2% and 98.3% respectively, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia both exceeded 80%. Meanwhile, Oman reached 77.6%. This rate is expected to rise to 95.1% by 2050.
Urban Challenges
Rising urban populations have catalysed a variety of road-related problems across the GCC, ranging from pollution to traffic congestion. The transport sector is estimated to be responsible for up to 50% of particulate emissions in developing countries, compared to 30% in developed countries. In 2021, Saudi Arabia had a per-capita emissions rate of 16.6 tonnes, the highest among G20 countries. In 2023 Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE were ranked among the top-15 most polluted countries based on particulate matter (PM2.5) levels, according to IQA ir, a Swiss air quality technology company. IQA ir measures countries’ compliance with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality standards, which set a safe level for PM2.5 at 5 micrograms per cubic meter (µg/m³). According to the US-based non-profit Berkeley Earth, inhaling 22 µg/m3 of PM2.5 is equivalent to smoking one cigarette daily, meaning residents of these countries effectively breath the equivalent of 1.5 to 2 cigarettes daily.
The impact of traffic is not limited to health concerns, however, but extends as well to significant economic losses due to urban congestion. In 2018 traffic congestion and road accidents alone were estimated to cost the Saudi economy about $21bn annually, or around 2.9% of the country’s GDP. Similarly, in 2017, Dubai faced road-related costs of $950m due to emergency and medical expenses, lost work hours, fuel and the environmental impact of increased pollution. A 2023 report by Strategy& Middle East and the Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile (FIA) highlighted that the region could save 2800 lives annually and reduce fatalities by 22% by ensuring that 75% of travel occurs on roads with recommended safety standards, contributing to $250bn in economic growth over 20 years.
A main contributing factor has been the lower utilisation of public transport, with 17.5% of people using it for daily trips in Dubai, around one-half that figure in Riyadh, 4.9% in Abu Dhabi and even smaller proportions in other major GCC cities. This contrasts sharply with 59% in New York, 33% in Tokyo, and 37% in London. To address this issue, a raft of public transport infrastructure projects are currently under way across the region.
In Qatar, the Doha Metro, which began operations in 2019, consists of four main lines covering approximately 76 km with 37 stations in total. Similarly, the Metro system in Riyadh, expected to be completed in 2024, will consist of six lines spanning a total length of 176 km with 84 stations. Touted as one of the largest metro projects in the world, it aims to transport 1.2m passengers daily in its initial phase and eventually 3.6m at full capacity, with the goal of increasing the public transport usage rate to 20%. However, due to the challenges and the complexities involved in shifting consumer behaviour, relying solely on traditional infrastructure investment may not be a comprehensive solution.
Tech Upgrades
To cope with the intensifying issues from urbanisation and congestion, smart cities are increasingly seen as a way to create urban ecosystems using digital technology to improve services and make cities more liveable. Solutions range from reducing traffic jams to better waste management. The Saudi Arabian government has committed $500bn to developing NEOM, a futuristic desert mega-city project situated in the north-western region of the country, spanning approximately 26,500 sq km. Focusing on sustainability and advanced technologies, NEOM has been dubbed the largest construction project on earth. It includes The Line, a linear city spanning 170 km in length. Intended to house up to 9m people, it will be entirely car-free and 100% powered by renewable energy. In an attempt to eliminate private vehicles, the project will integrate diverse transport modes, including high-speed rail with an end-to-end transit time of 20 minutes, autonomous vehicles and shared or active mobility options like walking and cycling.
Taking Charge
An important element of the value chain for smart mobility is a city’s investment in intelligent infrastructure and traffic management systems, including pavement markings, signage and other components that gather information and communicate with both vehicles and centralised management centres. For instance, Riyadh has already deployed an artificial intelligence (AI)-based adaptive signalling project, which optimises traffic-light timings based on real-time traffic conditions. The AI system uses data from traffic cameras and sensors to improve vehicle flow and reduce waiting times at intersections.
Similarly, the city of Makkah is harnessing AI technologies to improve traffic management and alleviate congestion during the annual Hajj season. One such initiative is Enseeyab, which uses drones to measure pilgrim movement in real time. Hospitals are using drones to transport critical supplies, such as blood and laboratory samples, reducing transport times, in some cases, from two and a half hours to two minutes. Additionally, micro-mobility options like electric scooters help reduce congestion, and the Virtual Glasses initiative equips personnel with augmented-reality glasses to supervise activities and ensure compliance. All of these efforts aim to cut inspection times by 600%.
Simultaneously, the UAE has been making significant progress in promoting smart and sustainable mobility as part of the country’s Net Zero by 2050 strategic initiative, aiming to reach zero carbon emissions by 2050. For instance, Dubai, which launched its Smart Dubai initiative in 2014, aims to shift 25% of transportation to autonomous modes by 2030. This strategy is expected to generate $6bn annually by reducing costs, carbon emissions, and accidents, while boosting productivity by minimising time wasted in traffic.
Additionally, a projected 44% drop in transport costs could lead to annual savings of up to $245m and reduce environmental pollution in the emirate by 12%. Dubai also plans to launch air taxis by 2026. These air taxis, capable of carrying one pilot and four passengers, are eventually expected to transport passengers from the airport to Palm Jumeirah in just 10 minutes, compared to 45 minutes by car. Concurrently, the emirate’s Strategic Plan 2024-30 has been designed to support the development of roads and transit systems to ensure that 80% of daily services are accessible within a 20-minute journey by walking, cycling or by other self-powered means.
Holistic Solutions
In the neighbouring emirate and UAE capital of Abu Dhabi, Masdar City, a sustainable and carbon-neutral city project launched in 2006 by Masdar (Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company), saw the completion of its first phase in 2010. The smart city incorporates several sustainable transport solutions, including a personal rapid-transit system with automated electric vehicles providing on-demand transport on dedicated guideways. The city is equipped with numerous EV charging stations, and a pedestrian and bicycle-friendly design. More recently in 2023, Abu Dhabi has launched the Smart and Autonomous Vehicle Industries cluster, a pioneering initiative for design, testing, and manufacturing of smart and autonomous mobility across air, land and sea.
Located in Masdar City, this multi-modal cluster is projected to add up to Dh120bn ($33bn) to the UAE economy and create up to 50,000 jobs. It aims to drive innovation and commercialisation in the autonomous vehicle sector, featuring facilities for design, testing and manufacturing, and will collaborate with stakeholders to enhance regulatory services and promote economic growth. These initiatives have contributed to Abu Dhabi leading the Middle East in the global IMD Smart City Index 2024, securing 10th place. Meanwhile, Dubai ranked 12th and Riyadh placed 22nd.
Population growth and increased urbanisation in the region are likely to continue to exacerbate economic, environmental and health challenges for the foreseeable future. However, integrating smart mobility solutions across the GCC can create more efficient, sustainable and connected transportation networks. This, in turn, can enhance residents’ quality of life and stimulate economic growth by reducing traffic congestion, increasing road safety, improving the environment and making transport more accessible and affordable. According to research by McKinsey, smart mobility applications could reduce commuting times by 15% to 20% on average by 2025, depending on each city’s density, existing transit infrastructure and commuting patterns. In a dense city with extensive transit, smart technologies could save commuters nearly 15 minutes a day, while in developing cities with longer commutes, the improvement might be 20 to 30 minutes daily.
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Quelle/Source: Oxford Business Group, 11.12.2024
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