'Black swan' issues may bring down the whole investment
Recent experience is showing us that investing in an ICT initiative is one of the highest risk activities the public sector could be involved with. It is surely the case when headlines like ‘millions wasted’, ‘years late’, and ‘minister resigns’ becomes the public’s corporate memory of a complex ICT project. So why does the public sector keep looking for ‘silver bullet’ ICT solutions when the available evidence shows continued under-performance, under-scoping and under-estimation of complexity and risk?
The answer may lie in the way we humans think when we are faced with risk, adversity, ambiguity and complexity. In those circumstances we tend to rely on hope, more than evidence. And if we are senior and powerful, we also tend to believe that somehow, through sheer force of will, we can change the risk environment to suit our wishes.