The NBN Co business plan, released today, estimates households could pay between $53 and $58 a month for a basic internet services with speeds of 12 megabits per second.
Building the network will take nine and a half years, with a rollout peak of 5900 premises a day during construction, but some 1.7 million homes, businesses and schools are expected to be connected by June 2013.
The business plan forecasts an internal rate of return of 7 per cent, based on a 70 per cent takeup of the network by businesses and homes.
NBN Co boss Mike Quigley said the internal rate of return for the business case was lower than might be expected in a commercial business plan.
However Ms Gillard told reporters in Canberra: “With the rate of return taxpayers will be repaid their investment in the NBN with interest.”
According to the 400-page business case, NBN Co forecasts an annual revenue of $5.8 billion by 2021.
The cost of the project has climbed $200,000 to $35.9 billion, with $27.5 billion in government equity and another $13.4 billion expected to be leveraged in debt from 2015.
The increased cost of building the project was driven by a key ruling from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, which rejected NBN Co's proposal to have 14 points of interconnection in capital cities.
The ACCC proposed NBN establish 108-130 POIs in mainland cities, another 81 POIs in regional Australia and six in Tasmania.
The NBN business case, released today, has 120 points of interconnection.
The NBN will deliver fibre to the home for 93 per cent of the nation, with the remaining seven per cent of premises to be covered by either wireless or satellite, the plan predicts.
Specific targets for the rollout of the yet-to-be-built network have also been included in the business plan, which was released alongside the corporate watchdog's advice to government.
All of these predictions and plans remain dependent on what Mr Quigley described as the “consummation” of a deal between NBN Co and Telstra.
Mr Quigley told reporters discussions with the nation's largest telecommunications provider would continue throughout the Christmas break.
He described as “conservative” the assumptions on future growth made in the business plan.
“The growth in demand for speeds will be considerably lower than the extrapolation of increasing speeds implied by the history of internet access technologies,” the plan says.
Ms Gillard said the business plan proved the NBN would be both viable and affordable, and would be delivered at a smaller cost than originally thought.
As well as returning taxpayers' investment “with interest”, uniform wholesale prices would also be achieved.
Communications Minister Stephen Conroy said the network would “deliver affordable prices to all Australians”, with basic wholesale packages priced from $24 a month.
“NBN co will offer a range of wholesale pricing options, providing retailers with maximum flexibility to tailor their services to customers,” he said.
The ACCC will use its new pricing powers to monitor competition.
Ms Gillard said retail prices for the NBN would be set by the market.
“The more competition you have the better pricing consumers will have - golden rule of markets of all kinds. It's a golden rule in telecommunications,” she said.
“The way in which the NBN is being rolled out, the uniform wholesale price will obviously facilitate competition between retail providers who'll be vying for business with competitive prices.
“The business plan shows that ... NBN has factored in wholesale prices coming down over time in real and in nominal terms.”
Mr Quigley said it was very difficult to compare the actual cost of the NBN plans to existing plans using older technology.
The business plan cites a cost between $53-58 per month for a 12 Mbps plan with a 50 gigabytes download limit.
Mr Quigley said that took into account all the factors a retailer would base their price on, based on what NBN would charge wholesale and factoring in other expected costs.
He said in the case of a voice-only service, there was an arrangement in the deal with Telstra to ensure prices would not rise.
“These plans are quite difficult to compare. You really have to look across all of the different factors that go into them and not just look at the one headline number you see on the back of a bus,” he said.
Battery backup would also be provided to ensure telephone services can be used during a blackout, Senator Conroy added.
Ms Gillard again defended the lack of a cost-benefit analysis, saying the business plan all but proved the network was financially sound.
“There's been any amount of discussion in this building about a cost-benefit analysis,” she said.
“But what this document is telling you today is the NBN is viable with a viable rate of return as a proposition in its own right.
“That's before you go to all of the economic benefits for business.”
Senator Conroy rejected the suggestion that the billion-dollar outlay could have been better spent on areas such as health and education, or roads and infrastructure.
“It is about spending money on hospitals,” he said.
“If you look at what Hong Kong has just completed on their e-health, the e-health benefits, it is already saving lives.”
The long-awaited plan had been kept under wraps by the government since early November, despite repeated calls to release it.
The government last month made a 36-page summary available to appease its critics.
---
Autor(en)/Author(s): Lauren Wilson
Quelle/Source: The Australian, 20.12.2010
Bitte besuchen Sie/Please visit:
